Aktuelle Publikationen

Why do junctures become critical in some cases but not in others? Building on the critical juncture framework and perspectives on the formation and diffusion of beliefs, we develop a theoretically parsimonious and empirically traceable account of divergence in institutional outcomes. By illuminating the role of agency and joint belief shifts we further open the “black box” of critical junctures. In particular, we develop the argument that the role agents play is conditioned by conflict lines that structure an institutional field before a juncture sets in. Empirically, we trace political discourses around the 2011 Fukushima nuclear accident in Canada, Germany, and Japan using discourse network analysis. Through comparative investigation, we empirically show that discursive interactions during potential critical junctures indicate institutional outcomes that are shaped by causally relevant historical legacies.

With the proliferation of sanctions after the end of the Cold War, the termination of these punitive measures has become a ubiquitous phenomenon in international politics. Yet, research has hitherto almost exclusively focused on sanctions’ implementation and effectiveness, whereas their termination has received little attention. In this paper, we draw on studies analyzing the varying duration of sanctions to examine under which conditions they end. In contrast to prior research that has mostly treated the end of sanctions as a single category, our analysis disaggregates sanctions termination by target compliance and sender capitulation. We run a competing risks model using novel dyadic sanctions data and show that the determinants of both outcomes significantly diverge. While poor economic health and high political volatility in the target country make it significantly more likely to comply, political alignment between the sender and target and leadership changes in the sender country lead to a higher probability of sender capitulation.

This article analyses the interplay between movement and stasis on Western European inland waterways by looking at four different orderings: navigational, regulatory, market, and intimate. These orderings are ongoing situated practices, which actors carry out in distributed sociomaterial assemblages. This was investigated through ethnographic fieldwork that was not only mobile, but also distributed across sites, both on land and the water. When following different actors, the key is to follow the action through which they are connected. Mobilising and immobilising ships is also achieved from land by control room operators, cargo brokers, family members and non-human actors like radar networks, geo-locative AIS apps, and water level databases. It became clear that often actors need to give market orderings priority and rearrange their position in other orderings accordingly, which results in palpable pressure, manifested in different problems that all concern time. Skippers take risks to be just in time, to find resting time and to mediate asynchronous rhythms of loved ones on land, all the while maintaining critical spatio-temporal separation with riverbed, embankment and other ships. Media play an important role in the assemblages: they keep separate what would otherwise collide and connect to deal with separation.

Purpose
The two main objectives of this project were to advance knowledge about the way corruption and related offences are structured and operate in society and to draw inferences on the efficiency and efficacy of the judicial authorities in handling reported offences with the ultimate goal of improving and effecting control policies.

Design/methodology/approach
In this research note the authors attempt to explore the relevance of judicial materials. The authors developed an analytical framework to extract information from court case decisions and analysed 838 court cases on corruption and related offences in Portuguese first instance courts for the period 2004–2008 to map the distribution of corruption and related offences, understand the anatomy of corruption as a criminal offence and learn from the judicial system's capacity to investigate, prosecute and trial reported occurrences.

Findings
Most corruption cases took place in the major metropolitan areas, involved municipalities as passive agents and construction companies as active agents and had to do with urban sprawl and land management policies. Court data also allowed the authors to gauge the areas or sectors of activity more exposed to corruption risks. Generally speaking, these tend to be those areas or sectors characterized by high levels of informality and clientelism, high profitability ratios deriving from political decisions, unbalanced supply-demand of decisional goods and services, disorganised and fragmented regulation, low levels of transparency and insufficient or misguided supervision.

Research limitations/implications
The framework for analysis is replicable in other contexts with minor adjustments. The major limitation is access to court decisions/narratives. This project was developed in partnership with the Portuguese Public Prosecutor's Office. This has facilitated access to those materials. For those wishing to use the database, the major limitation is that it covers only the period 2004–2008.


Practical implications
The court narratives confirm that in cases where the complaint is complemented by documentary, audio, video and photographic evidences collected by special investigative means the subsequent production of proof in court is more effective. The data also suggests that cases reported from inside the organisation where the offence takes place are likelier to reach the trial phase, thus reinforcing the need for diversifying and strengthening reporting mechanisms and procedures and the guarantees to those who are willing to collaborate with the auditing and investigative authorities.

Social implications
The authors contend that court cases of corruption and related offences yield important and useful policy-oriented information that should not be overlooked by decision-makers when upgrading their efforts to fight corruption.

Originality/value
This research note introduces a novel dataset on corruption court cases in Portugal. The policy significance of this dataset is threefold: (1) it provides decision-makers a more detailed mapping of the volume and distribution of corruption and related offences across the country than that provided by standard judicial statistics; (2) it fosters knowledge on key sociological aspects of the corrupt fact, thus helping decision-makers to understand better the type of actors, objectives, contexts, resources and exchanges involved and (3) it helps to understand the dynamics of judicial proceedings and how certain procedural and institutional features impact on outcomes.

This article examines patterns of change and continuity in Latin American foreign policies. It asks two interrelated questions: How can we conceptually and empirically account for foreign policy change? And why do states change their foreign policies in Latin America? To answer these questions, we used the results of a new expert survey on foreign policy preferences in the region between 1980 and 2014. The results we obtained using both linear and nonparametric specifications are very clear and consistent: presidential ideology is what matters the most. Simply put, a change in the ideology of the president produces a change in foreign policy that is almost equivalent in magnitude, all other theoretically relevant factors set to their means.

Since the birth of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the Europeans and the Americans have disagreed about who should share how much of the collective security burden. The input side of alliance burden sharing – that is, how many troops a member state contributes to the alliance – has been the privileged variable, both at the political as well as the academic levels. Other output variables (e.g. numbers of troops deployed to a particular mission) are highly contested. This article offers an analytically eclecticist framework for studying Atlantic burden sharing that allows combining variables on the input and output sides of the alliance burden sharing debate with those that consider it a social practice.

An impressive amount of evidence has been collected underpinning the importance of international public administrations (i.e., the secretariats of international governmental organizations) in a variety of policy areas, actor configurations, and multilevel political contexts. However, the problem of how to systematically observe and explain bureaucratic influence still lies at the core of the research puzzles that scholars presently attempt to solve. While acknowledging the achievements of recent research efforts, we argue that it is no coincidence that the results remain rather scattered and disconnected—as no consensus has been reached about how bureaucratic influence beyond nation states might be reasonably defined or reliably observed and how the individual insights gained could feed into the construction of a more general theory of bureaucratic influence in transnational governance. Based on a review of the literature, the essay describes what we see as the characteristic pitfalls of current research and presents two modest proposals on how the underlying challenges can be addressed. We first suggest defining the target of influence in terms of a particular policy and second advocate the inclusion of bureaucratic policy preferences into the influence concept. In order to help researchers to observe and compare policy influence across IPAs, we present a simple heuristic measurement scheme, which, if systematically applied, may help overcome the central ailment of recent influence studies. We demonstrate the applicability of the scheme by means of two empirical illustrations. The argument is that in the absence of a comprehensive descriptive, let alone analytical, theory of bureaucratic influence in transnational policymaking, our proposal may help to boost the accumulative potential of current research in the area.

A growing body of research has studied how autocratic regimes interfere with internet communication to contain challenges to their rule. In this review article, we survey the literature and identify the most important directions and challenges for future research. We structure our review along different network layers, each of which provides particular ways of governmental influence and control. While current research has made much progress in understanding individual digital tactics, we argue that there is still a need for theoretical development and empirical progress. First, we need a more comprehensive understanding of how particular tactics fit into an overall digital strategy, but also how they interact with traditional, “offline” means of autocratic politics, such as cooptation or repression. Second, we discuss a number of challenges that empirical research needs to address, such as the effectiveness of digital tactics, the problem of attribution, and the tool dependence of existing research.

This article studies local processes of policy feedback by analysing citizens’ fairness perceptions of public childcare fees in a German town. Employing an experimental vignette study, we uncover complex feedback effects: first, citizens in the study regard a fee level as fair that is close to the actual fee level in the city, suggesting self-reinforcing feedback effects. Second, citizens strongly support a fee structure in which fees vary according to parental income. As this preferred fee structure differs from the local fee structure in the town itself, we interpret the citizens’ preference as evidence for self-undermining policy feedback. Finally, the actual characteristics of the respondents matter less than the fictitious characteristics of the parents in the vignettes, which points to the importance of interpretive rather than resource-based feedback effects. In concluding, we highlight the relevance of these findings for broader debates about policy feedback.

The quantitative evidence on whether extractive industries generate economic wealth at the local level is far from conclusive. In line with recent studies highlighting the moderating role of institutions and governance structures in the resource–development nexus, we argue that the effect of mining on local economic well-being is largely driven by different control rights regimes. We claim that domestic mineral production stimulates local income more than internationally controlled extraction, since national mining companies promote more backward economic linkages and have higher incentives to engage in local capacity building. To test our micro-level arguments, we combine information on districts’ economic well-being as well as individual's assessments of their personal economic situation with our own dataset on the control rights of copper, gold, and diamond mines. Relying on these data, we perform district- and individual-level analyses of sub-Saharan Africa covering the period from 1997 to 2015. Our instrumental variable estimations and fixed effects models show that the presence of domestic mining companies is associated with increased local wealth. Multinational firms, by contrast, are linked to increased regional unemployment. They largely fail to promote subnational economic well-being.

We study how partisanship influences the perception of directed campaign statements of varying polarity and sentiment strength. Using a crowdsourced survey experiment with German participants, we find asymmetrical perceptual biases. Partisan respondents perceive negative campaigning from or about a party they favour, as less negative than non-partisans. The discounting effect applies particularly for voters with stronger preferences and for messages that are more strongly negative. Partisan preferences only weakly influence the perception of neutral or positive campaign statements. The discounting biases found for negative statements point at limits of negative campaigning effects in electoral contests. Different effects for weakly and strongly worded messages substantiate concerns that dichotomous approaches to negative campaigning could miss important variation in party communication and its effects.

Audiences’ TV series entertainment experiences are increasingly shaped not only by the events on the ‘first screen’ but also by discussions on social media. While an extensive body of research has examined practices of ‘second screening,’ especially on Twitter, online discussions before and after the live broadcast and on other platforms have received less attention. On Reddit—one of the most important platforms for Social TV—discussions often take place in temporally structured threads that allow users to discuss an episode before (pre-premiere thread), during (live premiere thread), and after (post-premiere thread) it airs. In this project, we examine whether these spaces mainly indicate temporal preferences among users or are associated with different usage practices and motives. To do so, we conducted two case studies of the Reddit community r/gameofthrones: a survey about usage motives (n = 417) and an automated content analysis of approximately 1.2 million comments left on the episode discussion threads in which we examined thread use over time, interactions between users, and discussion content. The results revealed differing usage motives and practices for the three thread types, illustrating the distinct function that these communication spaces fulfil for users.

Both foreign aid and sanctions are foreign policy tools to promote democracy. Yet, it is unclear how far incentives and coercion enhance democratization. Since sanctions and aid are often employed at the same time, the goal of this study is to determine their joint effect on democratization in target/recipient countries. We argue that sending democracy aid through civil society organizations enhances the effectiveness of sanctions as a democracy promotion tool because the civil society is empowered to introduce democratic changes. Thus, in addition to the top-down pressure on the target government created by sanctions, there is a bottom-up pressure exerted by the civil society. Our empirical results show that democratic sanctions by the European Union and the United States are more likely to have a positive effect when aid flows bypass the government. Conversely, aid channeled through the public sector mitigates the generally positive effect of sanctions on democracy. In order to estimate these joint effects, we employ a new comprehensive dataset on economic sanctions: the EUSANCT Dataset which integrates and updates existing databases on sanctions for the period between 1989 and 2015, merged with disaggregated OECD aid data and V-Dem democracy scores.