Cederman, Lars-Erik and Nils B. Weidmann. "Predicting Armed Conflict: Time to Adjust Our Expectations?"
This Essay provides an introduction to the general challenges of predicting political violence, particularly compared with predicting other types of events (such as earthquakes). What is possible? What is less realistic? We aim to debunk myths about predicting violence, as well as to illustrate the substantial recent progress in this field.